Anticipation that U.S. stocks will rise once the Federal Reserve begins reducing interest rates is at odds with recent history. Data compiled by CFRA Inc. show the S&P 500 Index fell 12.4% in the first six months after cuts started in 2007. The drop broke a post-World War II record of 9.5% set in 2001, when the central bank’s previous series of reductions got under way. Declines in the S&P 500 also followed moves toward lower rates that began in 1960, 1968 and 1981. Would another setback happen?