Shopify the next Amazon?

Shopify SHOP 358.74 +7.67 +2.18% is closing in on an all time high today after KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Josh Beck wrote Monday that it’s scale “could rival Amazon” in a few years as the company rolls out new features and addresses gaps in its product offering.

Looking 4 years down the road…

Because Josh says it doesn’t make it so. From the earnings press release…

For the full year 2019, Shopify currently expects:

  • Revenues in the range of $1.48 billion to $1.50 billion
  • GAAP operating loss in the range of $130 million to $140 million
  • Adjusted operating incomein the range of $20 to $30 million , which excludes stock-based compensation expenses and related payroll taxes of $160 million

For the second quarter of 2019, Shopify currently expects:

  • Revenues in the range of $345 million to $350 million
  • GAAP operating loss in the range of $46 million to $48 million
  • Adjusted operating loss in the range of $6 million to $8 million, which excludes stock-based compensation expenses and related payroll taxes of $40 million

And one more thing to think about… Amazon’s biggest money maker is AWS. Not retail. So even IF Shopify were to rival Amazon’s commerce presence, the company would need to significantly expand it’s offerings to ramp up that profit.